Why Disciplined Investing is Crucial During Geopolitical Events
News of war and geopolitical conflict is always troubling. Events like the conflict currently unfolding in Iran can raise understandable concerns for investors, especially when headlines create uncertainty about how markets may respond.
In moments like these, it can be tempting to make changes to an investment strategy. However, reacting to geopolitical events rarely improves long-term outcomes.
Financial markets are forward looking. Prices adjust quickly as new information becomes available. When unexpected developments occur, markets may decline as investors process the news. But those same prices also continue to reflect positive expected returns for investors who remain invested.
History offers many reminders of this. Global markets have continued to grow despite wars, political crises, recessions, and other disruptions. Over the past several decades, markets have moved through events such as the oil embargo of the 1970s, the dot com crash, the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and multiple conflicts around the world.
FIGURE ABOVE: Research looking at nearly a century of market history provides further perspective
When examining major global conflicts dating back to the 1920s, markets often experienced higher short term volatility after the start of a conflict. However, the longer-term outcomes were much more encouraging. In fact, across the events studied, stock market returns three years after the start of these conflicts were positive in every case examined, highlighting the resilience of markets and the importance of staying invested.
*FIGURE ABOVE: Data from July 1926 - December 2025. Ken French Data Library. Returns greater than one year are annualized. Past performance is no guaranteed of future returns.
This does not diminish the human cost of war or the seriousness of geopolitical risk. But it does reinforce an important principle of long-term investing: trying to predict how markets will react to uncertain events is extremely difficult.
Our role is to provide thoughtful financial guidance so you can focus on what matters most in your life. A well designed investment plan is meant to support the things that give life meaning, whether that is family, community, experiences, or causes you care about. Staying disciplined during periods of uncertainty helps keep that plan on track.
For long-term investors, the most reliable approach has consistently been to remain diversified, stay focused on long-term goals, and avoid making emotional decisions based on short term headlines.
*Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Actual returns may be lower. In USD. MSCI data © MSCI 2026, all rights reserved. Data presented in the Growth of $1 chart is hypothetical and assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. The chart is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.